Summary: Heading into 2025, refrigerant prices are expected to
continue rising, with positive market sentiment and robust downstream demand.
Production schedules indicate high air-conditioner production volumes,
supporting refrigerant demand. Tight supply-demand dynamics for
third-generation refrigerants suggest high industry activity and profitability.
Refrigerant
Prices Rise While Fluoropolymer Prices Stay Low
In
December, the price disparities for refrigerants witnessed an upward
trajectory, while prices of fluoropolymers remained subdued. According to comprehensive data analytics, the prices of
third-generation refrigerants R32, R125, and R134a have settled at RMB 43,000/t,
RMB 42,000/t, and RMB 42,500/t respectively. Meanwhile, R22 has witnessed a
monthly increase of 3.13% compared to November, with its price reaching RMB
33,000/t. The rapid expansion of production capacities coupled with a
deceleration in demand growth has kept the prices of PTFE, PVDF, and HFP in
China subdued throughout 2024.
Refrigerant Prices Expected to Continue
Upward Trend in 2025
Heading into the
first quarter of 2025, the cash ex-factory prices for long-term agreements
(LTAs) among mainstream air-conditioning manufacturers have seen a quarterly
uptick. In the long-term perspective, refrigerant prices are poised to sustain
their upward trajectory. Statistical insights reveal that for the first quarter
of 2025, the cash ex-factory prices (inclusive of taxes) for LTAs with
mainstream air-conditioning factories stand at RMB 39,800/t for R32, marking a
6.13% quarterly growth, and RMB 40,800/t for R410, indicating an 11.78%
quarterly surge. Coupled with robust performance in foreign trade orders, the
short-term refrigerant market is anticipated to continue its positive momentum,
with prices potentially rising further in Q1. Overall, industry sentiment has
been bolstered, suggesting that the refrigerant boom cycle may persist.
Robust
Demand for Refrigerants Underlined by Production Schedules
Despite a decline in
January's household air-conditioner and refrigerator production volumes, a substantial
increase is forecasted for February, underlining the persistent robust demand
for refrigerants downstream. Statistical data indicates that from January to
March 2025, China's total household air-conditioner production schedules amount
to 17.14 million units, 14.3981 million units, and 24.9702 million units,
respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -1.55%, 22.60%, and 14.50%.
Since 2024, household air-conditioner and refrigerator production volumes have
remained at relatively high levels in recent years, providing underlying
support for refrigerant demand.
Tight Supply-Demand Dynamics for
Third-Generation Refrigerants
The reduction of
second-generation refrigerant quotas in 2025, alongside the maintenance of
total production quotas for third-generation refrigerants at baseline levels,
has created a scenario where, given the robust demand from the air-conditioning
market, third-generation refrigerant quotas have been slightly increased
compared to 2024. Considering the downstream demands from new installations and
maintenance markets, the supply-demand dynamics for third-generation
refrigerants remain tight. With a significant surge in February's downstream
air-conditioning industry production schedules and persistent robust downstream
demand, the finalized LTA prices for air-conditioning manufacturers in 2025 are
providing a sturdy foundation for refrigerant prices. This underscores the
potential for the refrigerant industry to sustain high levels of activity, with
associated refrigerant manufacturing enterprises poised for substantial
profitability enhancements.
About CCM:
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